Applied to positively-skewed exposures like Alpha Seeker or Tactical Beta, the typical momentum approach of assuming recent performance to be indicative of future results is like using the handle of a hammer to pound a nail- it might be possible, but it’s not likely to produce the desired outcome.

For almost a year now, most TCM strategies have been profitable even as they have been defensive and trailing their benchmarks… this is an indication that crisis conditions are becoming more frequent and from the appropriate “inside out” perspective, suggests an outstanding opportunity ahead for TCM’s positively skewed strategies.

With tactical strategies, every investment continually buys a new trade under new circumstances. Now, the conditions that produced last year’s low volatility decline are over and an investment in TCM strategies today means exposure to the VIX just as a potential crisis is brewing and the VIX is beginning to show signs of life.

Extending the 10 month soft-landing stalemate, another move toward the Fed’s “higher for longer” message has created a VIX inflection point that can lead to- but has so far stopped short of- crisis territory.

From the stabilization in equities to corporate credit spreads and the VIX both stopping short of crisis levels, markets have been pointing to this benign outcome… but with the market now expecting rate cuts in 2023 in defiance of Fed assurances to the contrary, the stage could be set for future volatility.