https://www.thompsoncm.com/thoughts daily 0.75 2026-03-16 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/1552660795119-3RTGI8I4KTE3QTAJUVJH/image-asset.jpeg Thoughts https://www.thompsoncm.com/thoughts/2026/3/16/vol-dash-032726 monthly 0.5 2026-03-30 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/bd29525d-1d56-4d95-9e03-fae977740089/Dashboard+032726.jpg Thoughts - Vol Dash 3/27/26 - Make it stand out TCM Volatility Dashboard Signals 1/2/24 - 3/27/26. Source: TCM. Click for larger image https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/8982f7d6-7fbe-4c10-82d7-f572d0c9e8d0/TB+Exposure+032726.jpg Thoughts - Vol Dash 3/27/26 - Make it stand out Tactical Beta daily exposure, trailing 100 day as of 3/27/26. Source: TCM. Click for larger image https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/efdb63aa-31b4-4281-9a9e-0f24437a35aa/TQ+Exposure+032726.jpg Thoughts - Vol Dash 3/27/26 - Make it stand out Tactical Q daily exposure, trailing 100 day as of 3/27/26. Source: TCM. Click for larger image https://www.thompsoncm.com/thoughts/2026/3/16/vol-dash-032026 monthly 0.5 2026-03-30 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/3e3957ad-5f59-430e-96d9-c13552d57a1f/Dashboard+032026.jpg Thoughts - Vol Dash 3/20/26 - Make it stand out TCM Volatility Dashboard Signals 1/2/24 - 3/20/26. Source: TCM. Click for larger image https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/084153f4-6603-4783-8454-6547b4dc43a0/TB+Exposure+032026.jpg Thoughts - Vol Dash 3/20/26 - Make it stand out Tactical Beta daily exposure, trailing 100 day as of 3/20/26. Source: TCM. Click for larger image https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/dd93f2e3-3926-4a49-8201-18a32c820825/TQ+Exposure+032026.jpg Thoughts - Vol Dash 3/20/26 - Make it stand out Tactical Q daily exposure, trailing 100 day as of 3/20/26. Source: TCM. Click for larger image https://www.thompsoncm.com/thoughts/2026/3/16/vol-dash-031626 monthly 0.5 2026-03-23 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/9e520ebe-e3b1-4961-981b-ed4dd87565c5/Dashboard+031326.jpg Thoughts - Introducing the “Vol Dash” - Make it stand out TCM Volatility Dashboard Signals 1/2/24 - 3/13/26. Source: TCM. Click for larger image https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/178dfd26-f19d-419a-90b8-38970e7ed2a2/TB+Exposure+031326.jpg Thoughts - Introducing the “Vol Dash” - Make it stand out Tactical Beta daily exposure, trailing 100 day as of 3/13/26. Source: TCM. Click for larger image https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/8c299fc4-dcfa-41a7-b469-ef37c4a97e6a/TQ+Exposure+031326.jpg Thoughts - Introducing the “Vol Dash” - Make it stand out Tactical Q daily exposure, trailing 100 day as of 3/13/26. Source: TCM. Click for larger image https://www.thompsoncm.com/thoughts/2026/2/14/february-2026-commentary monthly 0.5 2026-03-06 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/4eefc386-50bb-4f16-b652-f978433364e1/Rotation+Feb+2026.jpg Thoughts - February 2026 Commentary - Make it stand out Cumulative Performance 10/1/25 - 2/28/26. Source: barchart.com. Click for larger image https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/4b62e6db-80c7-4b00-b60e-c0835baf504d/AI+Uncertainty+Feb+2026.webp Thoughts - February 2026 Commentary - Make it stand out Uncertainty around AI is extreme https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/261fb4be-0506-4abf-b7e6-5289084004fc/NVDA+Price+vs+EPS+Feb+2026.jpg Thoughts - February 2026 Commentary - Make it stand out Nvidia (NVDA) Price vs Fwd EPS Estimates, Dec 2022 - Feb 2026. Source: Goldman Sachs. Click for larger image https://www.thompsoncm.com/thoughts/2026/2/3/january-2026-commentary monthly 0.5 2026-02-06 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/ad48d3a7-4a0c-4957-8620-5691118430e7/Run+It+Hot+Jan+2026.jpg Thoughts - January 2026 Commentary - Make it stand out YTD Return as of 1/31/26. Source: barchart.com. Click for larger image https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/da37864f-f51e-4657-865b-db58bacf4da0/Vol+Indexes+Jan+2026.jpg Thoughts - January 2026 Commentary - Make it stand out Select volatility indexes Jul 2025 - Jan 2026. Source: barchart.com. Click for larger image https://www.thompsoncm.com/thoughts/2026/1/6/december-2025-commentary monthly 0.5 2026-01-12 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/e0bbf631-e8e6-4866-819d-2c13724bce28/GS+Tech+Earnings+Jan+2026.png Thoughts - December 2025 Commentary - Make it stand out S&P 500 Tech Sector return composition. Source: Goldman Sachs. Click for larger image https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/033d557c-d4e4-4468-a3b1-cc736189429c/Metals+10y+Jan+2026.png Thoughts - December 2025 Commentary - Make it stand out Front month futures 10 year returns as of 1/7/26. Source: barchart.com. Click for larger image https://www.thompsoncm.com/thoughts/2025/11/21/2025-year-in-review monthly 0.5 2025-12-09 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/f10b4f5a-d159-4cff-8f5d-3354150acd2d/Happy+Holidays+2024.jpg Thoughts - 2025 Year In Review - happy holidays from Tcm! From our families to yours, a sincere thank you for your continued support and our warmest wishes for a happy holiday season and a prosperous New Year! https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/6c5f3290-954a-4588-965e-23ac6ad1b7e4/SPXTR+YTD+Dec+2025.png Thoughts - 2025 Year In Review - Make it stand out S&P 500 Total Return Index YTD Performance. Source: barchart.com. Click for larger image https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/7a7208a2-0b1f-4a94-894a-09a03b4c6012/GS+Hyperscaler+Capex+Nov+2025.png Thoughts - 2025 Year In Review - Make it stand out Hyperscaler (AI Infrastructure) Capital Expenditures. Source: Goldman Sachs. Click for larger image https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/b51f343d-0e69-4fb6-abfa-a0880878609e/Sharpe+Ratio+By+SPX+Beta+Dec+2025.png Thoughts - 2025 Year In Review - Make it stand out Sharpe Ratio by S&P 500 Beta, 1/3/00 - 11/28/25. Source: TCM, barchart.com. Click for larger image https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/fb098dfb-62d1-4cd5-bfe8-872c82b7111c/VIX+YTD+120525.png Thoughts - 2025 Year In Review - Make it stand out VIX Index YTD 12/5/25. Source: barchart.com. Volatility zones are approximate; actual determination is based on signals from the Volatility Dashboard. Click for larger image https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/cf3f1348-2a3e-4991-bf44-58384179dd25/TB+vs+JHEQX+YTD+Dec+2025.png Thoughts - 2025 Year In Review - Make it stand out YTD Return Comparison as of 11/28/25. Tactical Beta net of all expenses and 1% management fee. Source: TCM, barchart.com. Click for larger image https://www.thompsoncm.com/thoughts/2025/10/30/october-2025-commentary monthly 0.5 2025-11-07 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/c33a7e60-5dd4-4203-bb36-2fe69710d3b0/TB+vs+Peers+Oct+2025.png Thoughts - October 2025 Commentary - Make it stand out Tactical Beta return comparison as of Oct 2025. Source: TCM, Barchart.com. Click for larger image https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/630bed1a-6be8-43e9-9b1d-beff44ef70da/Cuts+At+SPX+ATHs+Oct+2025.png Thoughts - October 2025 Commentary - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/9e2c858e-ba20-48b6-9f03-cd0e669ba31c/Hedged+Disruptor+YTD+Oct+2025.png Thoughts - October 2025 Commentary - Make it stand out Hedged Disruptor composite YTD 2025 net return comparison. Source: TCM, Barchart.com. Click for larger image. See Fact Sheet for 1,3, and 5 year returns. https://www.thompsoncm.com/thoughts/2025/10/7/september-2025-commentary monthly 0.5 2025-10-08 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/fc6721d2-8f63-4aac-8323-8cbbff9a0747/Asset+Class+Returns+Sep+2025.png Thoughts - September 2025 Commentary - Make it stand out September 2025 MTD Return. Source: barchart.com. Click for larger image https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/168f5f2e-9c8e-4f19-a09b-da6b6d0943dd/LNAV+YTD+Atribution+093025.png Thoughts - September 2025 Commentary - Make it stand out Legacy Navigator YTD performance attribution. Source: TCM. Figures represent the contribution of each theme to the YTD performance of TCM’s largest Legacy Navigator account. Click for larger image. https://www.thompsoncm.com/thoughts/2025/9/3/august-2025-commentary monthly 0.5 2025-09-09 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/ab9f0b33-adf4-4d92-a556-1fe7d5ec6bef/Atlanta+Fed+SOFR+Aug+2025.png Thoughts - August 2025 Commentary - Make it stand out Expected Rates (SOFR) path. Source; Atlanta Fed. Click for larger image https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/c7ade617-e285-4d53-99dd-99f7bec195e3/TB+vs+Peer+Group+Rolling+083125.png Thoughts - August 2025 Commentary - Make it stand out Net returns as of August 2025. Source: TCM, barchart.com. Returns greater than 1 year are annualized. *HE Peers is an equally-weighted composite of JP Morgan Hedged Equity (JHEQ), Gateway Fd A (GATEX) and Swan Def Risk (SDRIX) https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/404ce0db-a1bd-487b-9a27-f0fd5c51a224/SPX+EPS+Aug+2025.png Thoughts - August 2025 Commentary - Make it stand out S&P 500 12m Fwd Earnings Estimates. Source: ycharts.com https://www.thompsoncm.com/thoughts/2025/7/31/july-2025-commentary monthly 0.5 2025-08-05 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/12e85221-7d39-4623-8d44-b9c0b334a060/Dashboard+YTD+073125.png Thoughts - July 2025 Commentary - Make it stand out TCM Volatility Dashboard signals YTD 07/31/25. Source: TCM. Click for larger image https://www.thompsoncm.com/thoughts/2025/6/30/june-2025-commentary monthly 0.5 2025-07-10 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/609985b9-71a7-4dee-b60b-81a895a105ed/SPX+and+Sentiment+Jul+2025.png Thoughts - June 2025 Commentary - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/9fd05856-7d35-447f-b03b-421a2180b628/TB+vs+Peers+Jun+2025.png Thoughts - June 2025 Commentary - Make it stand out Net Total Return as of 6/30/25. Source: TCM, barchart.com. Click for larger image https://www.thompsoncm.com/thoughts/2025/5/28/may-2025-commentary monthly 0.5 2025-06-05 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/28f74266-d2ee-484f-955a-558a03af59d3/GDP+Now+060225.png Thoughts - May 2025 Commentary - Make it stand out Atlanta Fed Q2 2025 GDP Estimate. Source: Atlanta Federal Reserve. Click for larger image https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/fee03ec1-e522-46c4-8979-b20cc9458acc/TB+vs+Peers+Trailing+Returns+as+of+053125.png Thoughts - May 2025 Commentary - Make it stand out Tactical Beta returns net of 1% management fee. “Hedged Equity Peers” is an equal weight composite of JPM Hedged Eq (JHEQX), Swan Def Risk (SDRIX) and Gateway Fd A (GATEX). Click for larger image https://www.thompsoncm.com/thoughts/2025/4/30/apr-2025-commentary monthly 0.5 2025-05-07 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/d28cd25b-874a-4342-bef7-ed115de80777/SPX+110424-043025.png Thoughts - Apr 2025 Commentary - Make it stand out S&P 500 TR, 11/4/24 - 4/30/25. Source: barchart.com. Click for larger image https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/e4cdfd8f-0828-4730-8ad1-d9d7f909d5a5/TB+vs+Peers+110123-043025.png Thoughts - Apr 2025 Commentary - Make it stand out Cumulative returns by market phase, 11/1/23 - 4/30/25. Source: TCM, barchart.com. Click for larger image https://www.thompsoncm.com/thoughts/2025/3/11/mar-2025-commentary monthly 0.5 2025-04-11 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/a4324dac-f86c-4547-b485-d5cff39ed198/TB+1%25+vs+Peers+Return+By+Market+Phase+110123-040425.png Thoughts - Mar 2025 Commentary - Make it stand out Cumulative net return, 11/1/23 - 4/425. Time period reflects the dates of the last two corrections (closes -10% or below a recent peak) in the S&P 500. See thompsoncm.com/documents for 1, 3, 5 and since inception figures. Hedged Equity Peers is an equal-weighted composite of JPM Hedged Equity (JHEQX), Swan Def Risk (SDRIX) and Gateway Fd A (GATEX). Click for larger image https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/0b29c32c-1ea2-4803-be7b-204e537dbcaf/TB+1%25+vs+Peers+Return+By+Market+Phase+110116-040425.png Thoughts - Mar 2025 Commentary - Make it stand out Cumulative net return by market phase, 11/1/16 - 4/425. Time periods reflect the dates of major declines (-10% or more) in the S&P 500 since Nov 2016. See thompsoncm.com/documents for 1, 3, 5 and since inception figures. Hedged Equity Peers is an equal-weighted composite of JPM Hedged Equity (JHEQX), Swan Def Risk (SDRIX) and Gateway Fd A (GATEX). Click for larger image https://www.thompsoncm.com/thoughts/2025/2/26/feb-2025-commentary monthly 0.5 2025-03-10 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/ba8ff857-186f-4116-96f0-8b214fad1b09/YTD+Returns+Feb+2025.png Thoughts - Feb 2025 Commentary - Make it stand out YTD Returns as of 2/28/25. Source: TCM, Barchart.com. Click for larger image. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/95933f26-298b-43ed-9a99-0edb9f1a6a0a/TB+Exposure+Feb+2025.png Thoughts - Feb 2025 Commentary - Make it stand out Tactical Beta strategy exposure, trailing 100 day as of 2/28/25. Source: TCM. Click for larger image https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/a95661e8-f9ff-4610-b3ba-2e1c3ac71273/TB+vs+HE+Peers+Daily+Nov+2016+-+Feb+2025.png Thoughts - Feb 2025 Commentary - Make it stand out Cumulative Return, Nov 2015 - Feb 2025. Source: TCM, Barchart.com. Click for larger image https://www.thompsoncm.com/thoughts/2025/1/30/jan-2025-commentary monthly 0.5 2025-02-07 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/8a64decb-d160-4a8a-9df2-3e614449b3b5/Jan+2024+MTD+Return+Chart.png Thoughts - Jan 2025 Commentary - Make it stand out Jan 2025 MTD Returns. Source: barchart.com. Click for larger image https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/7a4ec046-3f3b-4cc8-8965-8375b14f3998/SPX+Gain_Loss+By+VX+Curve+Feb+2025.png Thoughts - Jan 2025 Commentary - Make it stand out Cumulative point gain / loss by VIX curve state (2nd VIX future / 1st VIX future), Jan 2005 - Jan 2025. Source: TCM, barchart.com. Click for larger image https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/0eef7fde-3c0e-4446-a5e9-0e6e0225d54a/TB+vs+HE+Peers+Daily+Nov+2016+-+Jan+2025.png Thoughts - Jan 2025 Commentary - Make it stand out Cumulative return, Nov 2016 - Jan 2025. Source: TCM, barchart.com. Click for larger image https://www.thompsoncm.com/thoughts/2024/12/24/dec-2024-commentary monthly 0.5 2025-01-10 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/87bc5603-9ca3-4043-834d-9c749616f12a/10y+Yield+Post+Rate+Cuts+Jan+2025.jpeg Thoughts - Dec 2024 Commentary 10 Year Yield Historical Average Around Rate Cuts. Source: Apollo. Click for larger image https://www.thompsoncm.com/thoughts/2024/11/15/2024-year-in-review monthly 0.5 2024-12-20 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/08c53783-2e5e-4880-bdd2-2073db286e6e/Happy+Holidays.jpg Thoughts - 2024 Year In Review - Happy Holidays from TCM From our families to yours, a sincere thank you for your continued support and our warmest wishes for a happy holiday season and a prosperous New Year! https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/b3ec55ba-c99b-4052-a4f0-9b9b74b13a45/Dashboard+YTD+121824.png Thoughts - 2024 Year In Review - Make it stand out Volatility Dashboard YTD as of 12/18/24. Source: TCM. Click for larger image. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/356f5fa7-1649-4ed9-8836-504a555e36cc/TB+vs+Peers+110123-121824.png Thoughts - 2024 Year In Review - Make it stand out Total return net of fees, 11/1/23 - 12/18/24. Source: TCM, barchart.com. Click for larger image. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/1734640928899-GG5QAH5JJ328RJ7CX1UT/Stock+Price+Increase+Dec+2024.png Thoughts - 2024 Year In Review https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/1734640928714-ONSKUT3H8JA2RGNM3SIE/Stock+Investment+Value+Dec+2024.png Thoughts - 2024 Year In Review https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/1734640957507-4QQ7YCQ8H1LKVKAOUDDV/Fed+Funds+Projections+Dec+2024.png Thoughts - 2024 Year In Review https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/1734640957783-VAHP451SJH2JP4VK1NTU/Inflation+vs+1970s+Dec+2024.png Thoughts - 2024 Year In Review https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/cbb1476a-36eb-4155-b7d7-9b24998b9b8a/Yield+More+Attractive+As+Rates+Fall+Dec+2024.png Thoughts - 2024 Year In Review - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://www.thompsoncm.com/thoughts/2024/11/6/october-2024-commentary monthly 0.5 2024-11-08 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/f15c3c1f-1ccc-40eb-b0d9-2c8ddfd72cdd/VIX+Curves+Pre+Post+Election+Nov+2024.png Thoughts - October 2024 Commentary - Make it stand out VIX futures curves, 10/31/24 and 11/6/24. Source: vixcentral.com https://www.thompsoncm.com/thoughts/2024/6/13/a-new-option-for-hedged-equity monthly 0.5 2024-10-07 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/2a61dbd0-ca81-46fe-8ab8-944a1ac4606b/HE+Peer+Relative+Perf+Aug+2024.png Thoughts - A New Option For “Hedged Equity” - Make it stand out Cumulative Performance Relative to S&P 500 TR Nov 2016 - Aug 2024. Source: barchart.com. Click for larger image https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/ecfb2727-1cc1-4fa6-b2cd-cebbaa109ec2/TB+vs+HE+Peers+Risk+Mgmt+Since+Incept+Aug+2024.png Thoughts - A New Option For “Hedged Equity” - Make it stand out Cumulative performance relative to S&P 500 TR, 11/1/2016 - 8/31/2024. Source: barchart.com, TCM. Click for larger image https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/ecc2c835-b0b1-4753-9317-82dd84c72605/TB+vs+HE+Peer+Composite+Since+Incept+Aug+2024.png Thoughts - A New Option For “Hedged Equity” - Make it stand out Growth of $1000, Nov 2016 - Aug 2024. Source: TCM, barchart.com. Click for larger image https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/44dfe148-2245-41cb-b1cb-3004e502bf0d/Monthly+Capture+Ranges%2C+TB+vs+Peers+Aug+2024.png Thoughts - A New Option For “Hedged Equity” - Make it stand out Monthly capture ranges since inception, S&P 500 months greater than +1% or less than -1%, Nov 2016 - Aug 2024. Source: TCM, barchart.com. Click for larger image https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/c5356286-9dc3-4a39-9f9d-3e6b9ff01c53/TB+%26+Peer+Blends+Aug+2024.png Thoughts - A New Option For “Hedged Equity” - Make it stand out Growth of $1000, Nov 2016 - Aug 2024. Source: barchart.com, TCM. Hedged Equity Peer Composite and blended portfolios rebalanced monthly. Click for larger image https://www.thompsoncm.com/thoughts/2024/9/16/september-2024-commentary monthly 0.5 2024-10-04 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/9706de7d-ce56-4d77-b6ac-8683693a4f8a/2007-2008+Rate+Cut+Cycle+Sep+2024.png Thoughts - September 2024 Commentary - Make it stand out S&P 500 Index, Apr 2007 - Dec 2009. Source: barchart.com, St Louis Federal Reserve. Click for larger image https://www.thompsoncm.com/thoughts/2024/8/12/august-2024-commentary monthly 0.5 2024-09-06 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/28d81751-130d-4247-a2ac-79b3ed1b66d9/TB+vs+Peers+Aug+2024.png Thoughts - August 2024 Commentary - Make it stand out Return comparison, Nov 2023 - Aug 2024. Source: TCM, barchart.com. Click for larger image. Please refer to Tactical Beta fact sheet for full return history https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/06ca9128-5a7c-4572-aac0-cf69da7a2126/SPX+Perf+%26+Rate+Cuts+Aug+2024.png Thoughts - August 2024 Commentary - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/493b79bc-c262-42bf-8d65-eebbd2f1d02b/Recession+Watch+Aug+2024.png Thoughts - August 2024 Commentary - Make it stand out US Unemployment Rate, 10 Yr / 2Yr Treasury spread and US Recessions, Jan 1991 - Aug 2024. Source: St Louis Federal Reserve. Click for larger image https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/51bb86d8-1910-4a32-98ff-d11de31e6a82/VIX+In+Recessions+Aug+2024.png Thoughts - August 2024 Commentary - Make it stand out VIX Index and US Recessions, Jan 1991 - Aug 2024. Source: St Louis Federal Reserve. Click for larger image https://www.thompsoncm.com/thoughts/2024/6/26/july-2024-commentary monthly 0.5 2024-08-08 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/611b464c-2de2-47e5-bd87-5a5847bab0ed/Jul+2024+Index+Returns.png Thoughts - July 2024 Commentary - Make it stand out July 2024 MTD Returns. Source: barchart.com. Click for larger image https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/464c03b5-bf85-42c3-9976-9e8e02e8bf7b/TB+vs+Peers+YTD+Jul+2024.png Thoughts - July 2024 Commentary - Make it stand out Total return net of fees, Nov 2023 - Jul 2024. Source: TCM, barchart.com. Click for larger image. Please see Tactical Beta fact sheet for full performance history https://www.thompsoncm.com/thoughts/2024/6/5/june-2024-commentary monthly 0.5 2024-07-10 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/216b1dbe-b411-44f8-8e85-213c808de31e/SPX+EPS+Jun+2024.png Thoughts - June 2024 Commentary - Make it stand out S&P 500 consensus 2024 earnings estimates. Source: Factset, GS Global Inv Research. Click for larger image https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/711dd82f-06dc-4650-85d7-15cf4f4d3c3c/TB+Return+History+Jun+2024.png Thoughts - June 2024 Commentary - Make it stand out Return history as of Jun 2024. Source: TCM, Barchart.com. Click for larger image. https://www.thompsoncm.com/thoughts/2024/5/15/tcm-planning-how-to-add-150402-to-your-social-security-benefit monthly 0.5 2024-06-14 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/f6fc89fa-77e4-4504-963a-b807d24fc101/SS+Calculator.png Thoughts - TCM Planning: How to add $150,402 to Your Social Security Benefit - Make it stand out Click image to download file https://www.thompsoncm.com/thoughts/2024/5/4/may-2024-commentary monthly 0.5 2024-06-05 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/3481f201-2ec0-4ddb-a68f-d5e2238938ce/SPXTR+May+2024.png Thoughts - May 2024 Commentary - Make it stand out S&P 500 TR Index, Apr - May 2024. Source: barchart.com. Click for larger image https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/94145f49-28e1-4da2-a5d7-adf4cae0377f/TB+vs+Peers+May+2024.png Thoughts - May 2024 Commentary - Make it stand out Return Comparison as of May 2024. Source: TCM, barchart.com. Click for larger image https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/32bb61c4-7d01-4e09-aca7-86d270ea8a73/SPX+Rtn+By+VIX+Level+May+2024.png Thoughts - May 2024 Commentary - Make it stand out S&P 500 Index with VIX levels, Jan 1990 - May 2024. Source: TCM, barchart.com https://www.thompsoncm.com/thoughts/2024/5/16/the-industry-standard-update monthly 0.5 2024-05-20 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/2506628e-eb89-4c34-9f5e-e132eb30434d/Risk+Mgmt+Expense+110123-051524.png Thoughts - The Industry Standard Update - Make it stand out Cumulative Risk Management Effect, 11/1/23 - 5/15/24. All returns net of fees (Tactical Beta net of 1%) Source: TCM, Barchart.com. Click for larger image https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/49d0e533-281d-4b9f-96e6-71262218da2a/TB+vs+Peers+Tot+Rtn+Since+Incept+051524.png Thoughts - The Industry Standard Update - Make it stand out Cumulative Return, 11/116 - 5/15/24. All returns net of fees (Tactical Beta net of 1%) Source: TCM, Barchart.com. Click for larger image https://www.thompsoncm.com/thoughts/2024/4/11/april-2024-commentary monthly 0.5 2024-05-09 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/3986e777-6c92-4c41-ba4e-132015679d89/ES%2C+VX+1h+Apr+2024.png Thoughts - April 2024 Commentary - Make it stand out June S&P 500 & May VIX futures hourly Apr 2024. Source: Barchart.com. Click for larger image https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/d436a15e-b39e-437c-b874-94c2ec7a8449/TB%2C+JHEQX%2C+SPXTR+Perf+May+2024.png Thoughts - April 2024 Commentary - Make it stand out Cumulative return 11/1/23 - 4/30/24. Source: TCM, Barchart.com. Click for larger image https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/df95364b-5dbc-422a-a81a-91078f22e2d8/TB+vs+HE+Peers+Hedge+Perf+Apr+2024.png Thoughts - April 2024 Commentary - Make it stand out Cumulative risk management effect as of Apr 2024. Source: TCM, Barchart.com. Click for larger image. “Hedged Equity Peers” is an equally-weighted composite of JP Morgan Hedged Equity (JHEQX), Swan Def Risk (SDRIX) and Gateway Fd A (GATEX), rebalanced monthly. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/0ef59bea-3bcf-48c3-a496-69f1053915e2/US+Debt+to+GDP+Apr+2024.png Thoughts - April 2024 Commentary - Make it stand out US Debt / GDP Ratio Jan 1966 - Oct 2023. Source: St Louis Federal Reserve https://www.thompsoncm.com/thoughts/2024/3/27/march-2024-commentary monthly 0.5 2024-04-11 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/364ace9c-571b-47b7-90ed-9f622118becd/AI+Ecosystem+Mar+2024.png Thoughts - March 2024 Commentary - Make it stand out YTD return as of 3/31/24. Source: Barchart.com. Click for larger image https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/bdec7d3b-22b7-4f44-ae44-d58abb5bb7db/TB+vs+JHEQX+Nov+2023+-+Mar+2024.png Thoughts - March 2024 Commentary - Make it stand out Cumulative return, Nov 2023 - Mar 2024. Source: TCM, Yahoo Finance. Click for larger image https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/c3e5812b-0730-4d8a-a0cb-53f9f8c56fab/Crisis+Sequence+Mar+2024.png Thoughts - March 2024 Commentary - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://www.thompsoncm.com/thoughts/2024/1/19/an-active-approach-to-passive-income monthly 0.5 2024-03-14 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/ad1b6a7f-6f9b-4186-b621-1a514e3b27e9/Covered+Call+AUM+Jan+2024.png Thoughts - An Active Approach to Passive Income - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/d8722327-300d-4dfd-8f55-80039664b2b7/Option+Income+ETFs+Jan+2024.png Thoughts - An Active Approach to Passive Income - Make it stand out Selected option income ETFs as of Jan 2024. Source: ETF.com, Yahoo Finance. Click for larger image. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/9f937121-4049-4de7-9677-160d9dd8f579/Hedged+Yield+vs+JNK+Feb+2024.png Thoughts - An Active Approach to Passive Income - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/f43e6ea1-8bc9-4962-b395-31c8c4541bf3/XYLD+Div+History+Mar+2024.png Thoughts - An Active Approach to Passive Income - Make it stand out S&P 500 Covered Call ETF (XYLD): Total Dividends Received, $100k initial investment 6/25/13 - 2/29/24. Source: Yahoo Finance https://www.thompsoncm.com/thoughts/2024/2/21/february-2024-commentary monthly 0.5 2024-03-07 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/9584451f-b7c0-434e-91f3-7f4afca120e6/VIX+Curve+022924.png Thoughts - February 2024 Commentary - Make it stand out VIX futures prices 2/29/24. Source: vixcentral.com. Click for larger image https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/a8f72fda-c68b-4f85-ad3d-fcd8465ca557/DI+VAMI+Feb+2024.png Thoughts - February 2024 Commentary - Make it stand out Growth of $1000, 11/1/23 - 2/29/24. Source: TCM, Yahoo Finance https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/683afe90-17ef-4d09-ab85-a426d72bfc31/Yield+Curve+Inversion+Record+Feb+2024.png Thoughts - February 2024 Commentary - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://www.thompsoncm.com/thoughts/2024/2/1/january-2024-commentary monthly 0.5 2024-02-08 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/2e21d55a-c9d8-4157-b5e9-169cb1854023/Mag+7+EPS+Revisions+Jan+2024.png Thoughts - January 2024 Commentary - Make it stand out 4Q23 EPS Revisions. Source: Goldman Sachs. Click for larger image https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/481bdf31-e282-464d-a396-2d7a8288f4a0/EM+vs+US+50yr+Low+Jan+2024.png Thoughts - January 2024 Commentary - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/5922fafc-d664-4b7f-b3ff-57134547b429/NYCB+Jan+2024.png Thoughts - January 2024 Commentary - Make it stand out New York Community Bank (NYCB) daily closing share price, Jan 2023 - Feb 2024. Source: Yahoo Finance https://www.thompsoncm.com/thoughts/2023/12/29/dec-2023-commentary monthly 0.5 2024-01-11 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/6ad69096-a9ab-4c7d-bc51-c631e0e950ab/TB+vs+JHEQX+Nov-Dec+2023.png Thoughts - Dec 2023 Commentary - Make it stand out Cumulative Return, Nov-Dec 2023. Source: TCM, Yahoo Finance https://www.thompsoncm.com/thoughts/2023/11/30/2023-year-in-review monthly 0.5 2024-08-13 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/9c00673a-dd9a-4364-8fb6-48cdd196acf1/SPX%2C+NDX%2C+RUT+Perf+2022-2023.png Thoughts - 2023 Year In Review - Make it stand out Cumulative Performance 01/03/22 - 12/19/23. Source: stockcharts.com. Click for larger image https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/3adad2fa-ef27-4f5f-abcc-2956f5a363b1/Dashboard+2022-2023.png Thoughts - 2023 Year In Review - Make it stand out TCM Volatility Dashboard, Jan 2022 - Dec 2023. Source: TCM. Click for larger image https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/24ac94d3-6e3c-4a3b-afea-4a691edbfc9e/AS+and+Balanced+Portfolio+2022-2023.png Thoughts - 2023 Year In Review - Make it stand out Hypothetical growth of $1000, 2022-2023. Source: TCM, Yahoo Finance. Click for larger image https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/1702930877159-C3PFTNHLWSR886LTGPWM/Pers+Cons+Exp+Dec+2023.png Thoughts - 2023 Year In Review - Slide 1 Personal consumption expenditures, y/y change https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/1703014129406-9SQKU0WM65BJ4J5X6200/Real+Median+Household+Income+Dec+2023.png Thoughts - 2023 Year In Review - Slide 2 Real median household income, y/y change https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/1702928463007-RKA8KVL49Q1PX4Y53VXD/Personal+Savings+Rate+Dec+2023.jpg Thoughts - 2023 Year In Review - Slide 3 Personal savings rate, y/y change https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/1702928466600-W6W8E54J0BF4ENQX9QMY/Credit+Card+Balances+Dec+2023.jpg Thoughts - 2023 Year In Review - Slide 4 Credit card balances, billions, seasonally-adjusted https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/1702928148007-GDCCPYBQOW07XPVUJC42/Multiple+Jobs+ATH+Dec+2023.png Thoughts - 2023 Year In Review - Slide 5 Multiple jobholders: Primary full-time, secondary part-time https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/1702929296619-7IH8J3EBOTJAM1YSYPJ9/US+Govt+Spending+Dec+2023.jpg Thoughts - 2023 Year In Review - Slide 1 US gov’t spending & revenue https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/1702929276659-7DKQGR72FS1JBCNH25X4/US+Govt+Ann+Int+Expense+Dec+2023.png Thoughts - 2023 Year In Review - Slide 2 US gov’t annual interest payments, seasonally adjusted https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/1702929269823-EUCBQ04ICF7MZYXXJZ18/US+Interest+vs+Defense+Spending+Dec+2023.jpg Thoughts - 2023 Year In Review - Slide 3 US gov’t interest expense vs defense spending https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/1703263973604-GF08HKEK0LCCH2WZG1QI/Treasury+Issuance+2024.png Thoughts - 2023 Year In Review - Slide 4 US Treasury issuance by tenor, billions https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/1702929679404-A8UL3PKT1GJ7N119K35R/US+Corp+Net+Int+Payments+2023.jpg Thoughts - 2023 Year In Review - Slide 1 Corporate net interest payments https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/1703277446945-IHP32AZMI3MB1LJSWZKH/US+Corp+Spreads+%26+VIX+Dec+2023.png Thoughts - 2023 Year In Review - Slide 2 Corporate credit spreads and VIX index https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/1703278250402-RXHZ8A6B0UPIQIGCTQDE/Mag+7+ACWI+Weights+Dec+2023.png Thoughts - 2023 Year In Review - Slide 3 MSCI All Country World Index weights https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/1702930502863-FTOHV9IV5UYUIFPIIP9G/Corp+Debt+Maturity+Schedule+Dec+2023.jpg Thoughts - 2023 Year In Review - Slide 4 Debt maturity schedule https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/f76c42d3-f63a-4ee7-a8c6-1350f20ef84a/SPX+Around+Rate+Cuts+Dec+2023.png Thoughts - 2023 Year In Review - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://www.thompsoncm.com/thoughts/2023/11/1/november-2023-commentary monthly 0.5 2023-12-07 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/bb0bae52-4c57-423a-9e63-e30ba8ae16db/Soft+Landing+Consensus+Nov+2023.png Thoughts - November 2023 Commentary - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/aa8a21df-357b-4580-8037-4868c2708599/Soft+Landing+Articles+Nov+2023.png Thoughts - November 2023 Commentary - Make it stand out Source: Bloomberg https://www.thompsoncm.com/thoughts/2023/10/18/october-2023-commentary monthly 0.5 2023-11-08 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/b2140831-7ef7-40fe-980b-4a27c36da33b/AS%2C+SPX%2C+AGG+Oct+2023.png Thoughts - October 2023 Commentary - Make it stand out Total Return, Jul - Oct 2023. Source: TCM, Yahoo Finance. Click for larger image https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/bebc7220-a3e5-4f42-aae2-ceca98ded546/Precrisis+VIX+Oct+2023.png Thoughts - October 2023 Commentary - Make it stand out VIX crisis hedging concept. Source: TCM. For illustrative purposes only. Click for larger image. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/471a3716-7500-4cc0-be53-d1efed082f63/Crisis+Checklist+Oct+2023.png Thoughts - October 2023 Commentary - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/1698259111856-6WIVEERGIOA289UWIFU7/Yield+Curve+De-Inversions+Oct+2023.png Thoughts - October 2023 Commentary - 10y-2y Treasury yield, 1999-2023. Source: St. Louis Federal Reserve https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/1698259393824-18XJYBBDTI0SLMNC1UCD/VIX+Peaks+and+Recessions+Oct+2023.png Thoughts - October 2023 Commentary - VIX index and recessions, 1999-2023. Source: St. Louis Federal Reserve https://www.thompsoncm.com/thoughts/2023/10/13/managing-the-equity-crisis-cycle monthly 0.5 2024-09-18 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/05ed9041-9b38-4411-9705-f24d5b09437b/Fed+Funds+Rate+yoy+Chg+vs+SPX+Oct+2023.png Thoughts - Managing The Equity Crisis Cycle - Make it stand out Fed Funds y/y Change, S&P 500 Index and US Recessions, 2000-2023. Source: St Louis FRED. Click for larger image https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/9588f34b-dde7-4824-a99b-d7cba3aa4bfb/Equity+Crisis+Cycle%2C+Simple.png Thoughts - Managing The Equity Crisis Cycle - Make it stand out The Equity Crisis Cycle. Source: TCM. For illustrative purposes only https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/03f45511-6bdd-4365-aedd-cbdf13ec884b/Hedged+Equity+Composite+vs+SPX+Oct+2023.png Thoughts - Managing The Equity Crisis Cycle - Make it stand out Growth of $1000, Option-Hedged Equity strategies vs S&P 500 TR, Nov 2016 - Oct 2023. Source: Yahoo Finance. “Option-Hedged Equity Strategies Composite” is an equally-weighted composite of JP Morgan Hedged Equity (JHEQX), Swan Defined Risk (SDRIX) and Gateway Fund Cl A (GATEX), rebalanced monthly. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/3fdb8b30-16d3-4c11-9f52-b275171c5af1/VIX+Crisis+Hedging+Concept.png Thoughts - Managing The Equity Crisis Cycle - Make it stand out VIX Crisis Hedging Concept. Source: TCM. Stylized example for illustrative purposes only. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/1697815819776-Q5C7QME4NQOIKW1KMOO6/Volmaggedon+Cycle.png Thoughts - Managing The Equity Crisis Cycle https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/1697815819795-V1GCGCXXIA5OM57ESDSR/COVID+Cycle.png Thoughts - Managing The Equity Crisis Cycle https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/02326b22-558b-424d-abb8-c30bab952e54/Hedged+Equity+Composite%2C+SPX+%26+TB+Oct+2023.png Thoughts - Managing The Equity Crisis Cycle - Make it stand out Growth of $1000, Tactical Beta, Option-Hedged Equity strategies and S&P 500 TR, Nov 2016 - Oct 2023. Source: TCM, Yahoo Finance. “Option-Hedged Equity Strategies Composite” is an equally-weighted composite of JP Morgan Hedged Equity (JHEQX), Swan Defined Risk (SDRIX) and Gateway Fund Cl A (GATEX), rebalanced monthly. Tactical Beta net of all expenses and 1% management fee. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/72159b1d-59ca-4a9b-a1c7-26143ea80082/Current+Cycle+Sep+2023.png Thoughts - Managing The Equity Crisis Cycle - Make it stand out Current Crisis Cycle Return Comparison, Fall 2023. Source: TCM. Click for larger image https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/1697335279765-XQCLODGIZ49O6MBRO5P3/Yield+Curve+Oct+2023.jpg Thoughts - Managing The Equity Crisis Cycle https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/1697206019491-VYVDUVZZ16DOIY4ULRJ4/VIX+vs+Yield+Curve+Tier+1+Aug+2023.jpeg Thoughts - Managing The Equity Crisis Cycle https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/1697204125473-4GTNC2NCY2LNSNJIB3SV/Recession+Probability+Oct+2023.jpg Thoughts - Managing The Equity Crisis Cycle https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/1697204125516-ZXFKHNXBNGZKVHIMVDEH/Defaults+Oct+2023.jpg Thoughts - Managing The Equity Crisis Cycle https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/1697204126394-D6TI928KAU4LR8BEPPJ3/Savings+Contraction+Oct+2023.jpg Thoughts - Managing The Equity Crisis Cycle https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/1697204126478-B6BRY56SG4PVPL9Q1RBM/Credit+Contraction+Oct+2023.jpg Thoughts - Managing The Equity Crisis Cycle https://www.thompsoncm.com/thoughts/2023/9/30/september-2023-commentary monthly 0.5 2023-10-11 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/f6c90561-d0e1-41e2-ab09-751d314e62a8/Tsy+Issuance+Sep+2023.jpg Thoughts - September 2023 Commentary - Make it stand out US Treasury issuance has exploded higher since the debt ceiling raise in June. Source: Bloomberg. Click for larger image https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/b1d90be6-cf05-4da8-93ad-92c8a8d639bb/Crisis+Checklist+Sep+2023.png Thoughts - September 2023 Commentary - Make it stand out Crisis Checklist, September 2023. Source: TCM https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/d8f14400-43c7-4fce-85cb-99911e536419/SPX+Sep+2023.png Thoughts - September 2023 Commentary - Make it stand out S&P 500 Index, Jan 2020 - Sep 2023. Source: barchart.com. Click for larger image https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/da6b6e7a-f32b-4a67-94c7-fb5608721c63/Equity+Crisis+Cycle+Sep+2023.png Thoughts - September 2023 Commentary - Make it stand out Market crisis cycle, Mar 2020 - Sep 2023. For illustrative purposes only. Source: TCM https://www.thompsoncm.com/thoughts/2023/8/10/august-2023-commentary monthly 0.5 2023-09-11 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/edfa57d2-e2da-4c4d-ae00-6f861e1ee30a/SPX+TNX+Aug+2023.png Thoughts - August 2023 Commentary - Make it stand out S&P 500, VIX Futures and 10y Treasury Yields, Aug 2023. Source: Yahoo Finance. Click for larger image https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/efc0657a-cbfe-4b4c-8c6b-561d37e69d0c/VIX+vs+Yield+Curve+Tier+1+Aug+2023.jpeg Thoughts - August 2023 Commentary - Make it stand out The treasury yield curve may be pointing to a major VIX crisis move ahead. https://www.thompsoncm.com/thoughts/2023/7/14/july-2023-commentary monthly 0.5 2023-09-11 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/c56765b0-f2a3-4329-a4cf-c205c9cfffa8/IMG_4586.jpeg Thoughts - July 2023 Commentary - Make it stand out “Soft landing” failures, 1990-2007. Source: Piper Sandler. Click for larger image https://www.thompsoncm.com/thoughts/2023/6/24/9u6hbu9g6738e24khonxl8l7eqxcq2 monthly 0.5 2023-07-12 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/a78ef1de-fb0a-4f04-ae9c-b326e630b7cb/VIX+Curves+Jun+2023.png Thoughts - June 2023 Commentary - Make it stand out VIX futures term structure progression, 3/13/23 - 6/30/23. Source: vixcentral.com https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/ebc9b251-9a66-43fc-bd53-b9a736c9a0a6/Big+Tech+Jun+2023.png Thoughts - June 2023 Commentary - Make it stand out S&P 500 and Mega-Cap Tech price-weighted index performance, Jan 2022 - Jun 2023. Source: Yahoo Finance https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/79944926-6e67-4299-8222-4807232aa244/Yield+Curve+Jun+2023.png Thoughts - June 2023 Commentary - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/26e44d6c-f5ad-40ad-b368-653b1ecae050/Bank+Credit%2C+M2+Jun+2023.png Thoughts - June 2023 Commentary - Make it stand out Bank Credit and M2, y/y change. Source: St. Louis Federal Reserve https://www.thompsoncm.com/thoughts/2023/5/8/may-commentary monthly 0.5 2023-06-08 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/0fcc7b26-9dcc-4adc-838e-023d07969685/SPX%2C+NDX%2C+RUT+May+2023.png Thoughts - May 2023 Commentary - live by the sword YTD Return Comparison. Source: Yahoo Finance. Click for larger image https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/2d0324eb-9810-4baa-b1c5-545fa00e31c4/SDEX%2C+TDEX+May+2023.png Thoughts - May 2023 Commentary - Make it stand out Nations SkewDex and TailDex Indexes, 2020-2023. Source: Nations.com. Click for larger image https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/0874c602-cbc2-4d9c-921f-4f0fa66ca3e0/Macrobond+Rate+Cuts%2C+Recession+vs+No+Recession+May+2023.png Thoughts - May 2023 Commentary - Make it stand out Average S&P 500 performance following rate cuts. Source: Macrobond. Click for larger image https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/2d50fcf1-afc6-486c-ad9b-2413b04c17ee/SPX+VIXY+250d+Rtn+History+May+2023%2C+Sketched.png Thoughts - May 2023 Commentary - Make it stand out Trailing 1 Year Return History 2005-2021, S&P 500 and VIXY (SPVIXSTR Index). Source: Yahoo Finance, TCM. Click for larger image. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/b9d86ef3-3ee2-4c67-ae4c-31c05bed237e/1y+Rtn+vs+SPX%2C+TB+vs+Peers+May+2023%2C+Sketched.png Thoughts - May 2023 Commentary - Make it stand out 1-Year Relative Return Ranges, Oct 2017-May 2023. Source: Yahoo Finance, TCM. Click for larger image https://www.thompsoncm.com/thoughts/2023/5/10/guest-post-vix-dynamics-in-crises monthly 0.5 2023-05-17 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/61cb4200-7009-4e61-a3d2-51c5c9bf25fa/LHA+VIX+Crisis+1.png Thoughts - Guest Post: VIX Dynamics in Crises - Make it stand out S&P 500 and VIX index, 1990-2023. Source: Little Harbor Advisors. Click for larger image https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/6e172d90-d06a-449c-92e2-1edfe64fbc69/LHA+VIX+Crisis+2.png Thoughts - Guest Post: VIX Dynamics in Crises - Make it stand out Source: Little Harbor Advisors. Click for larger image https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/752f0a83-49c7-4825-bfc1-fb7959da4738/LHA+VIX+Crisis+3.png Thoughts - Guest Post: VIX Dynamics in Crises - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/6c8a4754-9c6d-453f-a05a-c28d1c61468b/LHA+VIX+Crisis+4.png Thoughts - Guest Post: VIX Dynamics in Crises - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://www.thompsoncm.com/thoughts/tcm-user-manual monthly 0.5 2023-10-26 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/1b98b17e-8c40-46c8-a8ef-003ce78fd3bb/Skew+vs+Beta+Apr+2023.jpg Thoughts - Inside Out: A TCM User Manual - Make it stand out Beta vs Monthly Return Skew, Nov 2016 - Apr 2023. *Alpha Seeker period Oct 2011 - Apr 2023. Source: TCM. Click for larger image https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/ebedc4ef-68ba-460d-a142-ddfe57deaa1b/TB+Cumulative+Perf+Differential+vs+SPX+Apr+2023.png Thoughts - Inside Out: A TCM User Manual - Make it stand out Cumulative performance differential with S&P 500 TR, Nov 2016 - Apr 2023. Source: Yahoo Finance, TCM. Click for larger image https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/54ad57bd-db5e-49cd-83b0-dc94f6bf0c7d/VIXY+Reactivity+Apr+2023.png Thoughts - Inside Out: A TCM User Manual - Make it stand out Top 10 worst S&P days Mar 2023 - Apr 2023. Source: Yahoo Finance, TCM. Click for larger image https://www.thompsoncm.com/thoughts/2023/4/20/april-commentary monthly 0.5 2023-05-17 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/9b86641a-4182-4797-83bd-c566b62c4c81/VIX+Curve+Apr+2023.jpg Thoughts - April 2023 Commentary - Make it stand out VIX futures term structure, 4/3/23 and 4/28/23. Source: vixcentral.com https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/23c71f5c-f5e4-4856-b133-c7e4363e77e7/AS+Exposure+Apr+2023.png Thoughts - April 2023 Commentary - Make it stand out Alpha Seeker daily exposure since inception. Source: TCM. Click for larger image https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/32ea39a2-a705-4a0c-9156-d30ff6a2dc3d/TB+Exposure+Apr+2023.png Thoughts - April 2023 Commentary - Make it stand out Tactical Beta daily exposure since inception. Source: TCM. Click for larger image https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/1b98b17e-8c40-46c8-a8ef-003ce78fd3bb/Skew+vs+Beta+Apr+2023.jpg Thoughts - April 2023 Commentary - Make it stand out Beta vs Monthly Return Skew, Nov 2016 - Apr 2023. *Alpha Seeker period Oct 2011 - Apr 2023. Source: TCM. Click for larger image https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/ebedc4ef-68ba-460d-a142-ddfe57deaa1b/TB+Cumulative+Perf+Differential+vs+SPX+Apr+2023.png Thoughts - April 2023 Commentary - Make it stand out Cumulative performance differential with S&P 500 TR, Nov 2016 - Apr 2023. Source: Yahoo Finance, TCM. Click for larger image https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/54ad57bd-db5e-49cd-83b0-dc94f6bf0c7d/VIXY+Reactivity+Apr+2023.png Thoughts - April 2023 Commentary - Make it stand out Top 10 worst S&P days Mar 2023 - Apr 2023. Source: Yahoo Finance, TCM. Click for larger image https://www.thompsoncm.com/thoughts/2023/3/14/march-commentary monthly 0.5 2023-05-17 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/1680373588073-1TZ0T7ZKOQEVJ7COEUJZ/DA8BBA3E-C52A-4E5E-985A-8966F6E21D77.jpeg Thoughts - March 2023 Commentary - Make it stand out 2-Year Treasury Yield, 3 day chg 1976-2023. Click for larger image https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/82d4c424-815d-4afd-89cf-c8b7f45b8012/Index+Returns+Mar+2023.png Thoughts - March 2023 Commentary - Make it stand out MTD Return, March 2023. Source: Yahoo Finance. Click for larger image https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/39677101-8529-4e80-8d63-2b132cf8e910/Fed+Hikes+Break+Something+Mar+2023.jpg Thoughts - March 2023 Commentary - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/f92b65c6-409a-4aa9-a68e-f830c850c5b0/2008+Bank+Failures.png Thoughts - March 2023 Commentary - Make it stand out S&P 500 and VIX Index with select 2008 bank failures. Sources: Yahoo Finance, thebalancemoney.com https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/e8d25143-1a2b-476f-b953-17e7544d6537/Bank+Losses+Mar+2023.jpg Thoughts - March 2023 Commentary - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://www.thompsoncm.com/thoughts/2023/1/13/l2v1yief40b6gkf9a4r9x0x5jdd3d5-ktdx3 monthly 0.5 2023-05-17 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/5eabee46-2dfe-4801-82e0-e1829a944ce6/Fed+Funds+Feb+2023.png Thoughts - February 2023 Commentary - Make it stand out Fed Funds Rate Expectations, 1/2/23 vs 2/23/23. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. Click for larger image https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/19b357e0-2acf-404b-bb54-cf340ff6ee96/S%26P+Stalemate+Feb+2023.png Thoughts - February 2023 Commentary - Make it stand out S&P 500 Index, 5/1/22 - 2/28/23. Source: Yahoo Finance https://www.thompsoncm.com/thoughts/2023/1/13/l2v1yief40b6gkf9a4r9x0x5jdd3d5 monthly 0.5 2023-05-17 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/e7c4edc2-609f-4d85-be60-d3def24aee5b/EAFE%2C+EEM%2C+SPX%2C+NDX+Jan+2023.png Thoughts - January 2023 Commentary - Make it stand out Growth of $100, Oct 2022 - Jan 2023. Source: MSCI, Yahoo Finance. Click for larger image https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/90eb3f42-0b46-4240-b378-2bd5d339400f/VIX+vs+HY+Spreads+Jan+2023.png Thoughts - January 2023 Commentary - Make it stand out VIX Index vs HY Corp Credit Spread. Source: St. Louis Federal Reserve. Click for larger image https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/25ea1a49-8488-488e-86c6-0bb91d36a49f/CPI+vs+VIX+Jan+2023.png Thoughts - January 2023 Commentary - Make it stand out CPI y/y change vs VIX index, Jan 2021 - Dec 2022. Source: St Louis Federal Reserve. Click for larger image https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/363d2525-2efd-424e-8ebc-826301835f71/VIX+vs+Realized+Jan+2023.png Thoughts - January 2023 Commentary - Make it stand out VIX Index vs S&P 500 realized volatility, Jan 2020 - Dec 2022. Source: Yahoo Finance, TCM. Click for larger image https://www.thompsoncm.com/thoughts/2022/11/29/december-commentary monthly 0.5 2023-05-17 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/4da91883-e7f3-425c-acd7-e21e449abfd1/EAFE%2C+EEM%2C+SPX%2C+NDX+YTD+2022.png Thoughts - December 2022 Commentary - Make it stand out Growth of $100, YTD 2022. Source: MSCI, Yahoo Finance. Click for larger image https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/38de9fa9-489a-4fb9-9711-af303f2e7b04/GS+0DTE+SPX+Dec+2022.png Thoughts - December 2022 Commentary - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://www.thompsoncm.com/thoughts/2022/11/7/november-commentary monthly 0.5 2023-05-17 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/7ae5b3dc-705b-46d3-a9a3-9dd42e309c89/VIX+Wedge+112522.png Thoughts - November 2022 Commentary - Make it stand out VIX Index, 10/1/2019 - 11/25/2022. Source: Yahoo Finance. Click for larger image https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/8a4c88c6-5c89-4760-af26-10c0dca96372/Fed+Funds+Expectations+Dec+2022.png Thoughts - November 2022 Commentary - Make it stand out Fed Funds Expectations as of 12/2/22. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/1ef9b7da-8229-4cc6-a78f-a03c4c0f5a67/Fed+Funds+vs+VIX+Nov+2022.png Thoughts - November 2022 Commentary - Make it stand out VIX Index vs Fed Fund Rate, 1990-2022. Source: St. Louis Fed. Click for larger image https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/89336048-cdd0-4b96-9a0a-cfa13561bd40/Equity+Crisis+Cycle.png Thoughts - November 2022 Commentary - Make it stand out Equity Crisis Cycle. Source: TCM. For illustrative purposes only. https://www.thompsoncm.com/thoughts/2022/11/1/2022-year-in-review monthly 0.5 2023-05-17 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/c1662f51-3333-42c7-9862-801c8c90ac15/YTD+Index+Returns+111022.png Thoughts - 2022 Year In Review - Make it stand out YTD Returns as of 11/10/2022. Source: Yahoo Finance. Click for larger image https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/97c51c69-e5d4-482c-a5c3-e576df925afe/VIXY%2C+SPX+Nov+2022.png Thoughts - 2022 Year In Review - Make it stand out YTD Return as of 11/10/22. Source: Yahoo Finance, TCM. Click for larger image https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/95de9c42-b919-4c92-add1-7a4799b55aab/TDEX+Nov+2022.png Thoughts - 2022 Year In Review - Make it stand out Nations TailDex Index (TDEX), 01/31/2005-10/31/2022. Source: Nations.com. Click for larger image https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/8b812aed-acbe-4f84-8eda-6d0a59e7abf9/VIX+Long+Term+Loops+Nov+2022.png Thoughts - 2022 Year In Review - Make it stand out VIX Index Long Term “Loops”, 01/01/90 - 11/10/22. Source: Yahoo Finance, TCM. Click for larger image https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/0c4469df-f03b-4ae3-90de-44ac0b8d1c08/Fed+Funds+vs+VIX+Nov+2022.png Thoughts - 2022 Year In Review - Make it stand out Fed Funds Effective Rate and VIX Index, 1955-2022. Source: St Louis FRED. Click for larger image https://www.thompsoncm.com/thoughts/2022/10/7/dmrxeo61fyhylmi8hi9v30n55txodc monthly 0.5 2023-05-17 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/a0caed58-88cd-432a-a862-78cc52e41c09/ES+101322+Intraday+Reversal.png Thoughts - October 2022 Commentary - Make it stand out S&P 500 E-Mini Future, 5m bars intraday 10/13/2022. Source: TD Ameritrade. Click for larger image https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/03909c61-8039-4ae3-9bb3-e3ca11ad2867/VIX+Wedge+103122.png Thoughts - October 2022 Commentary - Make it stand out VIX Index, Oct 2019 - Oct 2022. Source: Yahoo Finance https://www.thompsoncm.com/thoughts/2022/9/19/u8wko4wfjwcuatcceqzgmffyv25yah monthly 0.5 2023-05-17 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/efd51715-7038-40fa-99ad-5ec19076b3f3/VIX+vs+MOVE+Sep+2022.png Thoughts - September 2022 Commentary - Make it stand out MOVE Index and VIX Index, Mar 2018 - Sep 2022. Source: zerohedge.com https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/b7862c89-2890-4aeb-a823-5a7e593903ce/Airbag+Cost.png Thoughts - September 2022 Commentary - Make it stand out Yearly Returns, 2017-2021. Source: TCM, Yahoo Finance https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/ab2d7867-ff44-4be3-98ab-fdd3bbb4e185/Airbag+Deploy.png Thoughts - September 2022 Commentary - Make it stand out Monthly returns, Mar 2020. Source: TCM, Yahoo Finance https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/78d3c010-ee37-4f2b-9c9d-ee2d084cde90/Airbag+v+Seatbelt+Compare.png Thoughts - September 2022 Commentary - Make it stand out Growth of $1000, Tactical Beta VIX positions and inverse PUT index, compounded daily Nov 2016 - Sep 2022 . Source: TCM, CBOE https://www.thompsoncm.com/thoughts/2022/8/23/august-2022-commentary monthly 0.5 2023-05-17 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/bf1e5e92-9e98-4183-9705-669e82d32d6c/SPX+2008+Comp+Aug+2022.jpg Thoughts - August 2022 Commentary - Make it stand out S&P 500 and VIX Index, 2008 vs 2022. Source: Yahoo Finance. Click for larger image https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/b5b215b8-2082-4d70-a21b-138ff2275c1b/Lumber+YTD+Aug+2022.jpg Thoughts - August 2022 Commentary - Make it stand out Lumber price, YTD 2022. Source: Macrotrends.net https://www.thompsoncm.com/thoughts/2022/8/1/july-2022-commentary monthly 0.5 2023-05-17 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/d7b08c18-558a-4121-a616-b939e9a313f7/SPX%2C+VIXY+YTD+Jul+2022.jpg Thoughts - July 2022 Commentary - Make it stand out YTD Return as of 07/29/22. Source: Yahoo Finance https://www.thompsoncm.com/thoughts/2022/6/14/june-2022-commentary monthly 0.5 2023-05-17 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/25946c9c-6796-4237-9af9-fb5fc426d168/SPX+First+Half+History+Jun+2022.png Thoughts - June 2022 Commentary - Make it stand out S&P 500 First Half History, 1928-2022. Source: Compound Advisors. Click for larger image https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/a2d88ff8-0174-4123-bb88-bcbc5bfc5b6a/Fed+Financial+Stress+Jun+2022b.png Thoughts - June 2022 Commentary - Make it stand out St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index, 2008-2022. Source: St. Louis Fed FRED Database. Click for larger image https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/fea84bab-dcb9-46ea-9d87-95d3b8348fb5/Complacency+Combo+Jun+2022.png Thoughts - June 2022 Commentary - Make it stand out VIX complacency extremes, 2004-2022. Source: CBOE, TCM. Click for larger image https://www.thompsoncm.com/thoughts/2022/5/12/may-2022-commentary monthly 0.5 2023-05-17 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/4e25baa4-3964-4369-83bf-8844cbfddd70/SPX%2C+VIXY+May+2022.jpg Thoughts - May 2022 Commentary - Make it stand out MTD Return, May 2022. Source: Yahoo Finance https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/c460c2ed-fc2a-4141-bae8-2289c6199e67/2020+Sector%2C+SPX%2C+VIXY+Perf.jpg Thoughts - May 2022 Commentary - Make it stand out YTD Performance, Q1 2020. Click for larger image https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/5d40e9f6-13d6-4c98-8953-9c9acdcaa6f3/2022+Sector%2C+SPX%2C+VIXY+Perf.jpg Thoughts - May 2022 Commentary - Make it stand out YTD Performance, May 2022. Click for larger image https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/62d7f380-c752-45f0-b158-9a1b5f6037a7/TB+vs+Peers+May+2022.jpg Thoughts - May 2022 Commentary - Make it stand out Source: TCM, Yahoo Finance. “Hedged Equity Peers” is an equally-weighted composite of popular industry peers JP Morgan Hedged Equity (JHEQX), Swan Defined Risk (SDRIX) and Gateway Fund A (GATEX), rebalanced monthly. https://www.thompsoncm.com/thoughts/2022/4/27/april-2022-commentary monthly 0.5 2023-05-17 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/dd3346e2-0b4a-423d-b9f8-4770e6ceb36a/Picture1.png Thoughts - April 2022 Commentary - Make it stand out YTD Return as of 4/29/22 Source: Yahoo Finance https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/9492d1fd-c539-4c92-9cae-1148c998657c/AS%2C+TB%2C+SPX+YTD+Apr+2022.jpg Thoughts - April 2022 Commentary - Make it stand out YTD returns as of 4/29/22. Alpha Seeker and Tactical Beta net of 1% management fee. Source: Yahoo Finance, TCM. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/5cf62ef1-4aab-44b4-a733-e513a22f4f84/SPX%2C+NDX%2C+VIXY+1Yr+Apr+2022.jpg Thoughts - April 2022 Commentary - Make it stand out 1 Year Returns as of 4/29/22. Source: Yahoo Finance https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/2c9b1db1-96e1-484f-8066-6fa617d32f9f/Tsy+Yields+vs+Crisis+Periods.jpg Thoughts - April 2022 Commentary - Make it stand out 10 Year Treasury Yield and crisis periods, 1970-2022. Source: Bloomberg https://www.thompsoncm.com/thoughts/2022/3/15/a637r1l6nurc4jnlyiiafgd53tn1vu monthly 0.5 2023-05-17 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/5973dead-8c36-4570-8b47-e761056a6d43/MOVE+1Yr+040722.jpg Thoughts - March 2022 Commentary - Make it stand out ICE BAML MOVE Index, Trailing 1 Year. Click for larger image. Source: Yahoo Finance https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/0abc1802-084b-46f4-b2db-737ab0914f5d/TB+Monthly+Hedge+Profile+Since+Incept+Mar+2022.png Thoughts - March 2022 Commentary - Make it stand out Tactical Beta hedge profile since inception. Source: TCM. Click for larger image. https://www.thompsoncm.com/thoughts/2022/2/25/february-2022-commentary monthly 0.5 2023-05-17 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/4062ee94-fcb1-4b8e-8827-dc1e60a75fd1/VXX+YTD+Feb+2022.jpg Thoughts - February 2022 Commentary - Make it stand out VXX (iPath VIX Futures ETN) daily price ranges, YTD 2022. Click for larger image https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/8ca3460b-e9a1-45c0-990a-5cbe88663c1d/VXX+2020+vs+2022.jpg Thoughts - February 2022 Commentary - Make it stand out S&P 500 and VXX (iPath VIX Futures ETN) YTD return comparisons. Click for larger image https://www.thompsoncm.com/thoughts/2022/1/19/january-2022-commentary monthly 0.5 2023-05-17 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/9963265b-546b-4607-a70a-0189e9a068c6/TB+DD+History+Jan+2022.jpg Thoughts - January 2022 Commentary - Make it stand out VIX hedges kept Tactical Beta’s max drawdown near historical averages in January https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/63c2d01b-d218-4f66-be63-cf2fe4eca81b/Jan+2022+SPX+Compare+to+Oct+2018.jpg Thoughts - January 2022 Commentary - Make it stand out MTD return comparison, Oct 2018 and Jan 2022. Source: Yahoo Finance, TCM https://www.thompsoncm.com/thoughts/2021/12/10/2021-year-in-review monthly 0.5 2023-05-17 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/2d923b50-8bbb-4b7c-8f7a-7d5064ce39a3/SPX+Drawdown+History+123121.jpg Thoughts - 2021 Year In Review - Make it stand out After 2020’s turbulence, a quiet year for the S&P 500 in 2021 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/5b3f13ce-8926-41a2-8a07-a09749a0ca06/Signals+YTD+123121.jpg Thoughts - 2021 Year In Review - Make it stand out TCM VIX Dashboard Indicators YTD 2021 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/f5172dfe-6fd8-4d20-9eff-78503c2f87ef/TB+vs+Peers+Dec+2021.jpg Thoughts - 2021 Year In Review - Make it stand out Tactical Beta vs Hedged Equity Peers, Nov 2016 - Dec 2021. Click for larger image. Hedged Equity Peers is an equally-weighted composite of JP Morgan Hedged Equity (JHEQX), Swan Defined Risk (SDRIX) and Gateway Fund A (GATEX), rebalanced monthly. Source: TCM. https://www.thompsoncm.com/thoughts/2021/12/7/2021-year-end-tax-planning monthly 0.5 2023-05-17 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/78a4918c-1d9c-4180-838f-e4c90fb98080/Important+Numbers+Screenshot.jpg Thoughts - Year End Tax Planning - Make it stand out 2021 Important Numbers. Click image to download file. Source: fpPATHFINDER https://www.thompsoncm.com/thoughts/2021/11/30/november-2021-commentary monthly 0.5 2023-05-17 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/ef95a014-ac15-446f-8bdb-a013db7ad810/Life+of+a+Turkey.png Thoughts - November 2021 Commentary - Make it stand out The Life of a Tukey. Credit: Nassim Taleb https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/22211f64-9947-4e0b-82fc-ce53cb373486/US+Debt+Ceiling+History.jpg Thoughts - November 2021 Commentary - Make it stand out US debt ceiling history. Source: mercatus.org https://www.thompsoncm.com/thoughts/2021/10/29/october-2021-commentary monthly 0.5 2023-05-17 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/4497e17a-ba8a-4171-93ae-0b533ef591f0/Oct+2021+Commentary+Chart.jpg Thoughts - October 2021 Commentary - Make it stand out Cumulative return comparison, 10/21 - 10/29 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/1d5a1581-957e-4a8e-b9f2-83707eecc123/TB+DD+History+Net+1%25.png Thoughts - October 2021 Commentary - Make it stand out Tactical Beta Strategy drawdown history, Nov 2016 - Oct 2021 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/a5deb90d-9b45-4517-bd0e-d7ee7579eeb1/TB+DD+History+Net+1%25%2C+correction.png Thoughts - October 2021 Commentary - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/e44cc0a6-1d91-404f-93e5-47eecdb569c8/TB+DD+HIstory+Net+1%25%2C+crisis.png Thoughts - October 2021 Commentary - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://www.thompsoncm.com/thoughts/2021/9/28/september-2021-commentary monthly 0.5 2023-05-17 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/1633029931529-IAO9QR1OERCI9MMHCWAQ/VX+Curves+Sep+2021.jpg Thoughts - September 2021 Commentary - Make it stand out Daily VIX future curves, September 2021. Source: CBOE https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/1633011950746-M66Z2VJE2FR5C8BS5WKN/Purple+Indicator+Sep+2021.jpg Thoughts - September 2021 Commentary - Make it stand out Volatility Dashboard “fast” indicator, Sep 2021. Source: TCM https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/1633374709091-OV9KYCWX1M5A51T93UM8/VIX+Range+By+Quarter+Sep+2021.jpg Thoughts - September 2021 Commentary - Make it stand out VIX Index range and average by quarter, Apr 2004 - Sep 2021. Source: CBOE https://www.thompsoncm.com/thoughts/2021/8/27/august-2021-commentary monthly 0.5 2023-05-17 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/1630601331626-C1FUHFRXPFQAWGSVI615/SPY+5y+083121.jpg Thoughts - August 2021 Commentary - Make it stand out SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY), 5-year price chart. Source: Barchart.com https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/1630678167308-44N21Z1B4QMMSMV9ZB41/AS%2BTAIL+Aug+2021.jpg Thoughts - August 2021 Commentary - Make it stand out Hypothetical portfolio comparision, May 2017 - Aug 2021. 30% TAIL / 70% Alpha Seeker rebalanced monthly. Alpha Seeker net of 1% management fee. https://www.thompsoncm.com/thoughts/2021/7/27/aug-2021-commentary monthly 0.5 2023-05-17 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/1628091113301-QUTNWVPR8MFJPRLV0VZS/YTD+Index+Comp+Jul+2021.PNG Thoughts - July 2021 Commentary - Make it stand out US / foreign equity index divergence. Growth of $100, 6/1/21 - 7/31/21 https://www.thompsoncm.com/thoughts/2021/6/28/jun-2021-commentary monthly 0.5 2023-05-17 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/1625668196461-NHC1Q99R4AQ68ZMPA0YO/30y+Tsy+vs+VIX+Jun+2021.png Thoughts - June 2021 Commentary - Make it stand out 30 Year Treasury yield and VIX Index, June 2021. Source: Yahoo Finance https://www.thompsoncm.com/thoughts/2021/6/3/may-2021-commentary monthly 0.5 2021-06-04 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/1622825945988-AC8XZ51RK58B8UPBOX6P/VIX+Index+May+2021.png Thoughts - May 2021 Commentary - Make it stand out VIX Index May 2021 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/1622813766119-OQWKCMRMPDJQ80FJQPN6/Alt+Compounding+Table+May+2021.png Thoughts - May 2021 Commentary - Make it stand out Hypothetical example for illustrative purposes only. https://www.thompsoncm.com/thoughts/2021/5/3/april-2021-commentary monthly 0.5 2021-05-07 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/1620404658323-GGWLA1ZG7AC58LMSUQAZ/VIX+Term+Structure+Apr+2021b.jpg Thoughts - April 2021 Commentary VIX futures prices, April 2021. Source: vixcentral.com. Click for larger image https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/1620315832315-OFNGDPZM21YR6T53TM09/Wheat+May+2021.png Thoughts - April 2021 Commentary https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/1620315832315-7S0BZ7N1DUQS2CI7HHFN/BTC+May+2021.png Thoughts - April 2021 Commentary https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/1620315832732-X7P52ET1XS29GM1TRK0C/Copper+May+2021.png Thoughts - April 2021 Commentary https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/1620315832848-L9NBCAVJP8KY37PQUU73/Corn+May+2021.png Thoughts - April 2021 Commentary https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/1620315833196-1WV0V3EMWQKLF06O2DLF/Lumber+May+2021.png Thoughts - April 2021 Commentary https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/1620315833366-VFVDPLI948H7AKJNJO7L/Oats+May+2021.png Thoughts - April 2021 Commentary https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/1620315833644-CEKQVS73GHPY8ZB2D9KX/Soybeans+May+2021.png Thoughts - April 2021 Commentary https://www.thompsoncm.com/thoughts/2021/3/30/march-2021-commentary monthly 0.5 2021-04-06 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/1617650966110-9Y4FF2ZS9HG6UNVC5TOB/Mar+2021+MTD+Index+Returns.jpg Thoughts - March 2021 Commentary March 2021 MTD return comparison. Source: Yahoo Finance https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/1617720612424-0DT7PEEZ1TR27L2RZUCC/Mar+2021+Quote.jpg Thoughts - March 2021 Commentary https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/1617725880351-XT7P5MYE4QPE78NRSGPO/Smart+Index+Daily+Hedge+Attribution+Histogram+Mar+2021.jpg Thoughts - March 2021 Commentary US Equity Smart Index sample account daily hedge attribution, Nov 2016 - Mar 2021. Source: TCM https://www.thompsoncm.com/thoughts/2021/2/24/february-2021-commentary monthly 0.5 2021-03-03 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/1614186042161-I6765M15T9XQCYU7FXX6/Rate+Hike+Expectations+Feb+2021.jpg Thoughts - February 2021 Commentary https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/1614265701259-PHCBKHQZB1X4ECCAGWUM/Growth+vs+Value+Feb+2021.png Thoughts - February 2021 Commentary https://www.thompsoncm.com/thoughts/2021/1/28/january-2021-commentary monthly 0.5 2021-02-03 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/1612380129204-7R0VYYRQZO9F1CUG82YA/Small+Trader+Call+Buys+to+Open+Jan+2021b.png Thoughts - January 2021 Commentary - Small traders call option activity. Source: Sentimentrader, OCC https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/1612380145310-XDCT24Z071GHZUBNJ0HD/De+Grossing+Jan+2021.png Thoughts - January 2021 Commentary - Intense selling by hedge funds late in January. Source: Morgan Stanley https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/1612381811585-MAQKUJ6NN04TSAOYQ9RO/Jan+2021+Returns.png Thoughts - January 2021 Commentary Legacy Navigator net of 0.50%, Alpha Seeker and Smart Index strategies net of 1% and Hedged Disruptive Innovation net of 2% management fee. Click for larger image https://www.thompsoncm.com/thoughts/2020/12/10/december-2020-commentary monthly 0.5 2021-02-03 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/1608231845805-UWYG8ML4HZXYRQCQVQZD/external-content.duckduckgo.jpg Thoughts - 2020’s Ponderous Paradoxes https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/1609442819156-ONOSL0775ENOSHN66J4O/ARKK+Flows+Dec+2020.jpg Thoughts - 2020’s Ponderous Paradoxes https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/1609442822699-5G81XYEC1GQHOB7V2GUY/TSLA+Dec+2020.jpg Thoughts - 2020’s Ponderous Paradoxes https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/1609442828367-TDIOT0ZWGBYCPUA25E2C/VIX+Over+20+Dec+2020.jpg Thoughts - 2020’s Ponderous Paradoxes https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/1609442840894-HKUNSS45RDOZRL2VLIRO/SPX+Overnight+Dec+2020.jpg Thoughts - 2020’s Ponderous Paradoxes https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/1609443024338-521YKM182AN0SRZDLDRT/SPX+Corp+Profits+Nov+2020.png Thoughts - 2020’s Ponderous Paradoxes https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/1609443031500-KB0XANZ8DL27RFWWAC10/SPX+PE+Dec+2020.png Thoughts - 2020’s Ponderous Paradoxes https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/1610037765754-W8KTU4B06YI8FVDCY0LT/TSLA+v+CSCO+Dec+2020.png Thoughts - 2020’s Ponderous Paradoxes https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/1610037780858-AKDV40Z7NLEO2UGYKDHD/SPX+%26+Money+Supply+Dec+2020.jpg Thoughts - 2020’s Ponderous Paradoxes https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/1609961358960-G3HWYB2C34E8LBQHCDFW/AS+vs+Bal+Dec+2020.png Thoughts - 2020’s Ponderous Paradoxes Hypothetical portfolios comparison, Oct 2011 - Dec 2020. Rebalanced monthly, Alpha Seeker returns net of 1% management fee. Click for larger image. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/1610038346476-WO3O164J4JB3PT5ENTUW/SI+Industry+Comp+Dec+2020.png Thoughts - 2020’s Ponderous Paradoxes Returns comparison, Nov 2016 - Dec 2020. Smart Index net of 1% management fee. "Hedged Equity Peers" is an equally-weighted composite of JP Morgan Hedged Equity (JHEQX), Swan Defined Risk (SDRIX) and Gateway Fund A (GATEX), rebalanced monthly. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/1610038843074-0SUJEV1PV24N681U69CO/DI+VAMI+Dec+2020.png Thoughts - 2020’s Ponderous Paradoxes Growth of $1000, Aug 2019 - Dec 2020. Hedged DI returns net of 2% management fee. https://www.thompsoncm.com/thoughts/2020/11/30/november-2020-commentary monthly 0.5 2020-12-04 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/1606939827183-4MZO72VKB1H4Q6GTC34U/Nov+2020+VIX+Curves.jpg Thoughts - November 2020 Commentary VIX futures curves, 2020 vs 2016. Source: vixcentral.com https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/1607096210002-7MKXPXV46OEXKJ1CB9ZC/SI+SPX+Compare+Nov+2020.jpg Thoughts - November 2020 Commentary YTD 2020 return comparison. Smart Index net of 1% fee. Orange line = hypothetical results setting Smart Index March 2020 return to 0% and using actual returns otherwise. https://www.thompsoncm.com/thoughts/2020/10/27/october-2020-commentary monthly 0.5 2020-11-05 https://www.thompsoncm.com/thoughts/2020/10/21/mstb monthly 0.5 2020-10-22 https://www.thompsoncm.com/thoughts/2020/9/18/september-2020-commentary monthly 0.5 2020-10-09 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/1601909846213-DLLFI3RTHJMI9CIR3MQ0/SPX+VXX+Sep+2020.PNG Thoughts - September 2020 Commentary Sept 2020 return comparison. Click for larger image https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/1600437710650-5WN9593XZRR85COB782P/Retail+Options+Sep+2020.png Thoughts - September 2020 Commentary Small Trader Option Premium vs S&P 500. Source: @SentimentTrader. Click for larger image. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/1600437473585-6GXIXC0A10O3YBQJA01X/Holy+Grail.PNG Thoughts - September 2020 Commentary https://www.thompsoncm.com/thoughts/2020/8/26/money monthly 0.5 2020-09-03 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/1599149380145-P31HOPL4GUQ7D5VDUN0A/VIX+SPX+Aug+2020.PNG Thoughts - August 2020 Commentary 5 Day Correlation: VIX Index and S&P 500 Index. Click for larger image https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/1598462920799-4C3TYNGE61TDSV6OO0BC/Hours+to+Buy+SPX+Aug+2020.jpg Thoughts - August 2020 Commentary https://www.thompsoncm.com/thoughts/2020/7/24/july-2020-commentary monthly 0.5 2020-08-04 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/1596557946958-81DEXDKRLF4NV7HQ38D5/SPX+Top+5+Jul+2020b.PNG Thoughts - July 2020 Commentary https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/1596557022429-T9CHN6S7T1I369NCZ91O/S%26P+495+Jul+2020.png Thoughts - July 2020 Commentary https://www.thompsoncm.com/thoughts/2020/6/30/june-2020-commentary monthly 0.5 2020-07-06 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/1593542565526-SCCW8ECGO2N8WXA9KVP4/Jun+2020+Commentary+Pic.PNG Thoughts - June 2020 Commentary S&P 500 and VIX YTD 2020. Click for larger image. https://www.thompsoncm.com/thoughts/2020/6/2/may-2020-commentary monthly 0.5 2020-06-02 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/1591116601875-6CKCBBUNB7W736D69CP9/May+2020+Commentary+Chart.PNG Thoughts - May 2020 Commentary S&P 500 and VIX Futures, YTD 2020. Source: TCM, Yahoo Finance https://www.thompsoncm.com/thoughts/2020/5/28/alpha-seeker-etf monthly 0.5 2020-10-22 https://www.thompsoncm.com/thoughts/2020/4/30/april-2020-commentary monthly 0.5 2020-05-05 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/1588532636480-UE48ZARMNIIECMTLMSCF/Gladiator+Entertained.jpg Thoughts - April 2020 Commentary https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/1588536259407-8JU3FZ7QNEHJNEXYKVN4/VXX+VIX+Compare+Apr+2020.PNG Thoughts - April 2020 Commentary Cumulative return comparison, Mar 1- Apr 30, 2020 https://www.thompsoncm.com/thoughts/2020/4/22/tcm-tops-morningstar-etf-portfolios-database monthly 0.5 2020-04-22 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/1587573196119-QPVMPSWEDXG6YMPENPPT/Smart+Index+Morningstar+042220.PNG Thoughts - TCM Tops Morningstar ETF Portfolios Database Smart Index #1 one-year and three-year return as of 4/22/20 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/1587573347478-0LWQOZV9CZ59RDYZDWE1/Alpha+Seeker+Morningstar+042220.PNG Thoughts - TCM Tops Morningstar ETF Portfolios Database Alpha Seeker #1 five-year return as of 4/22/20 https://www.thompsoncm.com/thoughts/2020/3/30/march-2020-commentary monthly 0.5 2020-04-01 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/1585765814185-X2ISJ2AO6CWH2I0L22IN/VIX+Chart+Mar+2020.PNG Thoughts - March 2020 Commentary VIX Index, 1990-2020 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/1585769343699-8E2KG1GY9TNQUPCG6KGO/Rolling+Returns+Mar+2020.PNG Thoughts - March 2020 Commentary Rolling returns as of March 2020. 2- and 3-year returns are annualized. Alpha Seeker and Smart Index net of 1% management fee. https://www.thompsoncm.com/thoughts/2020/3/25/legacy-navigator-allocation-update monthly 0.5 2020-03-25 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/1585164633031-LYUZL1OOU79CT9WVKAFK/LNAV+Alloc+032520.PNG Thoughts - Legacy Navigator Allocation Update Legacy Navigator allocation pre- and post-3/24/20 update. Subject to change without notice. https://www.thompsoncm.com/thoughts/2020/3/2/a-buoy-in-the-storm monthly 0.5 2020-03-07 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/1583421494046-CUC9ENR85SWVGZ4R7J8E/Feb+2020+Rtn+Comp+Chart.PNG Thoughts - Feb 2020 Commentary 6 Month Return Comparison. Alpha Seeker returns from a sample account, net of all expenses and 1% management fee. Click for larger image https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/1583427359695-B1DDYC0YAIZW87F938QI/Artemis+Tweet+Feb+2020.PNG Thoughts - Feb 2020 Commentary https://www.thompsoncm.com/thoughts/2020/2/4/january-2020-commentary monthly 0.5 2020-02-04 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/1580842454926-3EJC7YIK1C6BR1FM6GOH/Jan+2020+Return+Comp.PNG Thoughts - January 2020 Commentary https://www.thompsoncm.com/thoughts/2019/11/25/2019-year-in-review monthly 0.5 2020-01-17 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/1574700651884-MS5I7UTY6DHJ2J2H63K1/SPX+vs+Earnings.png Thoughts - 2019 Year In Review S&P 500 Price vs Earnings. Source: @sentimenttrader https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/1576163017412-1Y5CU6LCXOTL5Q7I0KIV/VIX+18-20+Crosses+Dec+2019.PNG Thoughts - 2019 Year In Review VIX Index 18-20 Crosses. Source: CBOE, TCM https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/1577995139761-TZYPHNL4DQQNNMOPN0TJ/Smart+Index+Compare+Incept+Dec+2019.PNG Thoughts - 2019 Year In Review Growth of $1000, since inception as of 12/31/19. Click for larger image. “Hedged Equity Peers” is an equal-weighted composite of Swan Defined Risk (SDRIX), JP Morgan Hedged Equity (JHEQX) and Gateway Fund Cl A (GATEX), rebalanced monthly https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/1575560951845-5QEJEII2LW5W8C7WTTHY/GS+Longest+Bull+Mkt+Dec+2019.png Thoughts - 2019 Year In Review S&P 500 Bull & Bear Market History, 1900-2019. Source: Goldman Sachs https://www.thompsoncm.com/thoughts/2019/11/25/asset-allocation-theory-vs-reality monthly 0.5 2019-12-17 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/1576606870352-LT29PV66UT07M67WKZJZ/Asset+Allocation+Theory+vs+Reality.PNG Thoughts - Diversification: Theory vs Reality Theoretical growth of $1000, for illustrative purposes only. “Diversified Portfolio THEORY” is 50% Asset A, 50% Asset B, rebalanced annually. “Diversified Portfolio REALITY” is 50% Asset A, 50% Asset B in Year 1, then 100% Asset A thereafter. https://www.thompsoncm.com/thoughts/2019/11/25/november-2019-commentary monthly 0.5 2019-12-02 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/1575314527548-SFEVISSH937UETDX1S0E/Avg+Contango+By+Month+Nov+2019.PNG Thoughts - November 2019 Commentary Monthly average VIX futures curve (VX2 / VX1), 2016-2019. https://www.thompsoncm.com/thoughts/2019/11/19/smart-index-celebrates-3-years monthly 0.5 2019-11-21 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/1574264488449-93NXDFSE46LSCRDL2BXM/Smart+Index+VAMI+Comp+Nov+2019.PNG Thoughts - Smart Index Celebrates 3 Years Growth of $1000, Nov 2016 - Nov 2019. “Hedged Equity Peers” is an equal-weighted composite of Swan Defined Risk (SDRIX), JP Morgan Hedged Equity (JHEQX) and Gateway Fund Cl A (GATEX), rebalanced monthly https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/1574348893522-U61Y1496HTUO4NC5XZIR/Smart+Index+Tactical+Hedge+Nov+2019.PNG Thoughts - Smart Index Celebrates 3 Years S&P 500 and TCM Volatility Dashboard signals, Nov 2016-Nov 2019 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/1574278384382-H0N14J3AL40867C8SRUM/Smart+Index+Comp+Feb+05+2018.PNG Thoughts - Smart Index Celebrates 3 Years Feb 5, 2018 net returns. Click for larger image https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/1574354646058-MI582RT78WL9W722Y3VI/Smart+Index+Stats+Table+Nov+2019.PNG Thoughts - Smart Index Celebrates 3 Years Portfolio statistics, Nov 2016-Nov 2019. “50% Smart Index / 50% Hedged Eq” portfolio is pro-forma blend, rebalanced monthly https://www.thompsoncm.com/thoughts/2019/11/8/2008-a-closer-look monthly 0.5 2019-11-13 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/1573240006479-UYCLVEO0VV8ZFFSITMCJ/Recency+Bias+Sketch.jpg Thoughts - Recently Forgotten Recency bias. Source: NY Times https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/1573578015010-VMEPFRPPTYHHBFT6J2MN/VRP+2004-2007.PNG Thoughts - Recently Forgotten S&P 500 Volatility Risk Premium, 2004-2007 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/1573243465463-ULVOBHJJOD42JX8ZS56N/Bernanke+No+Recession+Jan+2008.PNG Thoughts - Recently Forgotten https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/1573242863890-T713W0XKOETQDDXIY81N/Oct+2008+Cycle.gif Thoughts - Recently Forgotten VIX Index and Futures, Sep-Oct 2008. Source: CBOE, TCM https://www.thompsoncm.com/thoughts/2019/11/8/a-matter-of-time monthly 0.5 2019-11-08 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/1573232712045-SJEJSZQIGLHGVKKSJHSM/VIX+Phase+History+110519.PNG Thoughts - A Matter of Time VIX Index Phase History 1990-2019. Source: TCM. Click for larger image https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/1573232826212-PLAWCIPOMFW3F9UZEEJM/Bloomberg+SPX+Nowhere+Oct+2019.png Thoughts - A Matter of Time S&P 500 Index Jan 2018 - Sep 2019 https://www.thompsoncm.com/thoughts/2019/11/5/october-2019-commentary monthly 0.5 2019-11-05 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/1572968849524-TYUQ1K9K4PFO72RIB5X5/Oct+2019+1.png Thoughts - October 2019 Commentary Oct 9th-10th Dow Futures. Click for larger image https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/1572968903048-MPGNF27AJ5M4OCDDVWQN/Oct+2019+2.png Thoughts - October 2019 Commentary NY Fed Recession Probability. Click for larger image. https://www.thompsoncm.com/thoughts/2019/11/5/the-comfort-zone monthly 0.5 2019-11-05 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/1572969422990-588IPS3T8Y56RWCCYADT/AMZN+DD+History+Nov+2019.png Thoughts - The Comfort Zone Amazon Inc (AMZN) price (upper panel) and drawdown history (lower panel). Source: priceactionlab.com https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/1572969610301-PV58AQ7UTUD7SEJ35SC1/AS+Fact+Sheet+Dec+2014.PNG Thoughts - The Comfort Zone Alpha Seeker Fact Sheet as of December 2014 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/1572977707479-95MBMAU45H538H6WUT69/AS+Ranking+Jun+2017.PNG Thoughts - The Comfort Zone Morningstar ETF Managed Portfolios Landscape Report, Q2 2017 https://www.thompsoncm.com/thoughts/2019/10/2/september-2019-commentary monthly 0.5 2019-10-02 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/1570047875332-C5S3VJ1RA72XN5XS5ERU/Sep+2019+1.PNG Thoughts - September 2019 Commentary Vol Loop progression, Sept 2019. Click for larger image https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/1570048051012-NZYQ6S8XK4VZZNRKK94S/Sep+2019+2.png Thoughts - September 2019 Commentary VIX Zones vs S&P 500 Behavior. Source: TCM. Click for larger image. https://www.thompsoncm.com/thoughts/2019/9/3/august-2019-commentary monthly 0.5 2019-09-03 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/1567526855295-CTE6ZVXYWYDYBRWVYE4J/MRA+Trade+War.png Thoughts - August 2019 Commentary The “Trade War Cycle”. Credit: Macro Risk Advisors https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/1567526998727-JXURL5QJHG8ZIWQMHA6W/Box+Charts+Aug+2019.PNG Thoughts - August 2019 Commentary Similar to 2007, the S&P has been caught in a “box” while VIX has increasingly tested 20. Click for larger image. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/1567527325091-EJQPEW0MQMDY9HY9OLI3/SPX+VIX+Consolidation.PNG Thoughts - August 2019 Commentary 2008 results for Alpha Seeker and Smart Index are hypothetical. Click for larger image. https://www.thompsoncm.com/thoughts/2019/8/19/legacy-navigator-allocation-update monthly 0.5 2019-09-03 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/1566306306986-X99GUMSA34MDC3PQAZMD/LNAV+Alloc+081919.PNG Thoughts - Legacy Navigator Allocation Update Legacy Navigator allocation as of 8/19/19 https://www.thompsoncm.com/thoughts/2019/8/5/july-2019-commentary monthly 0.5 2019-09-03 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/1565027052210-C52HI2ZR5U025M1B8SYR/image-asset.png Thoughts - July 2019 Commentary 2nd VIX future daily settlement / 1st VIX future daily settlement, 20 day average. Source TCM https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/1565027718517-WDXL55ZMOZG6I7BOTYNL/Jul19+2.PNG Thoughts - July 2019 Commentary Hypothetical growth of $1000 using historical capture ratios applied monthly to S&P 500. Source: TCM https://www.thompsoncm.com/thoughts/2019/8/2/alpha-seeker-roster-update monthly 0.5 2019-08-19 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/1564765081993-A5TWJBBT1BBULK5U47VS/AS+Roster+Aug+2019.PNG Thoughts - Alpha Seeker Roster Update Alpha Seeker Roster, Aug 2019 https://www.thompsoncm.com/thoughts/2019/7/8/june-2019-commentary-1 monthly 0.5 2019-07-09 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/1562694877366-HZ327U0VD4OBJZO4CPKW/Jun+2019+1.PNG Thoughts - June 2019 Commentary https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/1562695482946-4YGCJ96E029X8GXHG9VR/Jun+2019+2.PNG Thoughts - June 2019 Commentary Smart Index sample account, net of 1.95% fee. https://www.thompsoncm.com/thoughts/2019/7/8/alpha-seeker-review-june-2019 monthly 0.5 2019-08-18 https://www.thompsoncm.com/thoughts/2019/6/4/may-2019-commentary monthly 0.5 2019-06-04 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/1559661620133-8ENVE76GMIJ3Z2DBC63W/May+2019+1.PNG Thoughts - May 2019 Commentary May’s VIX high was reached well before the S&P 500 low https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/1559661822951-UHHT9DEL1Y7IZQISJ632/May+2019+2.PNG Thoughts - May 2019 Commentary Grey shaded figures are hypothetical. 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Smart Index and Alpha Seeker returns from sample accounts, before fees. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/1552427279836-FOBP4FJ7QB6CF0YHTD09/Nov+18+2.png Thoughts - November 2018 Commentary https://www.thompsoncm.com/thoughts/2019/3/12/oct-2018-commentary monthly 0.5 2021-01-29 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5c816ebf0cf57d9aab8cc273/1552427696398-OI0SYRY89PMOL7BPTNNW/Oct+2018+1.PNG Thoughts - October 2018 Commentary S&P 500 vs VIX Index, Oct 2018. 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