apocalypse later
As tariff pauses revived hope in trade policy as more of a bargaining tactic than an all out war, the S&P 500 rocketed to its best May in 35 years, extending its impressive run from April lows and now positive on the year after a 6.2% gain in May.
Atlanta Fed Q2 2025 GDP Estimate. Source: Atlanta Federal Reserve. Click for larger image
Despite notable volatility, markets are roughly unchanged since election day and ultimately, we expect economic fundamentals to “trump” sentiment- no pun intended. While there are currently some positive signs (chart), the economic picture is only gradually refined by markets in a reflexive process that often creates its own swings in sentiment.
Incorporating both hard data and opinion, prices in the VIX marketplace are a rich source of information that have successfully guided TCM through bull and bear markets alike for over a decade. Whether picking up on a spreading pandemic or a new turn in trade policy, staying aligned with the world’s premier hedging market has proven invaluable for TCM portfolios, as demonstrated by TCM’s flagship Tactical Beta strategy which as of May 2025 has now outperformed its hedged equity peers* in trailing 1, 3 and 5 year periods (chart).
*Equal weight composite of JPM Hedged Eq (JHEQX), Swan Def Risk (SDRIX) and Gateway Fd A (GATEX)
Tactical Beta returns net of 1% management fee. “Hedged Equity Peers” is an equal weight composite of JPM Hedged Eq (JHEQX), Swan Def Risk (SDRIX) and Gateway Fd A (GATEX). Click for larger image
Outside of flat US equity indexes, shifting economic policies in 2025 have opened up pockets of opportunity in foreign markets (Emg Mkts Smart Index +9.7% YTD) and in the nuclear power, cryptocurrency and tech infrastructure sectors that have helped boost TCM’s Hedged Disruptor (+9.7% YTD) and Legacy Navigator portfolios (+10.3% YTD) to strong starts heading into the halfway mark for the year.
As always, feel free to Contact Us to learn more!