As we have repeatedly suggested, the best time to own a crisis-focused strategy is just ahead of the next crisis. History suggests that we may now be on the precipice of one.

The return of the market’s fabled “bond vigilantes” threatens to remove a significant source of economic support just as stress from rising rates is growing extreme.

To us, this month confirms that interest rates are the main source of risk for equity markets. While stocks can’t seem to tolerate higher rates, any rate decline must also be benign… it seems as though the Fed’s “landing pad” is very narrow indeed.

Apparently confident that those who let inflation loose have now contained it without a recession, markets are nearing a critical juncture where this assumption is tested by reality.

Powered by “AI” optimism that has turbocharged a handful of the largest stocks in the world, markets are certainly giving the appearance of strength so far in 2023. As greed overtakes fear once again, it is worth noting that emotional markets (on the way up or down) often create allocation errors as the larger context is ignored.

As sector rotation has so far kept a lid on index volatility in 2023, VIX headwinds from the options market have been abating as both “skew” (the price of puts relative to calls) and the price of tail protection have quietly reversed much of last year’s weakness, setting up better potential for VIX movement once conditions change