Vol Dash 5/1/26

 

Introducing the Vol Dash by TCM, a weekly update on markets and positioning through the lens of TCM’s Volatility Dashboard.

 
Vol Dash User Guide

Vol Dash for week ended 5/1/26

After major catalysts (FOMC, tech earnings) passed last week, the VIX futures curve moved further into bullish territory as stock indexes touched fresh highs. 

For now, it appears that markets are looking past the negative ‘left tail’ of high oil prices to the positive ‘right tail’ potential of AI but after a nearly uninterrupted run from the March lows, some consolidation may be in order.  Aside from Iran headlines, Friday's Nonfarm Payroll report stands out as the next "known unknown".    

TCM Volatility Dashboard Signals 1/2/24 - 5/1/26. Source: TCM. Click for larger image

 

Exposure Update for week ended 5/1/26

Tactical Beta and Tactical Q remain near full index exposure, looking to increase to a maximum of 120% on any pullback that does not meaningfully change VIX Dashboard signals.  

Tactical Beta daily exposure, trailing 100 day as of 5/1/26. Source: TCM. Click for larger image

Tactical Q daily exposure, trailing 100 day as of 5/1/26. Source: TCM. Click for larger image

Thompson Capital Management is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only. It should not be considered specific investment advice, does not take into consideration your specific situation, and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any securities or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and are not guaranteed. Be sure to consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.