Introducing the Vol Dash by TCM, a weekly update on markets and positioning through the lens of TCM’s Volatility Dashboard.
Vol Dash for week ended 6/12/26
Stocks ended slightly positive last week as realized volatility rose following a sharp "V" pattern that saw large intraday swings in both directions. Reflecting increased uncertainty, Dashboard signals have slipped to marginally bullish territory while VIX Thrust (VIX futures relative strength vs a proprietary benchmark) continues to grind higher from low levels.
Potential catalysts in the holiday-shortened week ahead include the first FOMC meeting with new Chair Warsh on Wednesday followed by a large monthly options expiration on Thursday in which nearly $5T in inventory disappears from market makers' books, setting the stage for indexes to move more organically as exposure is rebuilt.
TCM Volatility Dashboard Signals 1/2/24 - 6/12/26. Source: TCM. Click for larger image
Exposure Update for week ended 6/12/26
Ahead of a binary Iran deal risk over the weekend and in the context of recent instability, Tactical Beta and Tactical Q applied temporary index hedges late last week via inverse index funds or in eligible accounts, via index put options.
Tactical Beta daily exposure, trailing 100 day as of 6/12/26. Source: TCM. Click for larger image
Tactical Q daily exposure, trailing 100 day as of 6/12/26. Source: TCM. Click for larger image