VOL DASH
Markets, volatility and
positioning
DASHBOARD SIGNAL: RISK ON
From Unwind to Upswing
Stocks surged in the opening week of August as strong second-quarter earnings eased concerns about AI investment returns, while falling oil prices provided additional support. On Friday, equities advanced after an unexpected decline in July payrolls reduced near-term concerns about additional Federal Reserve rate increases.
Confirming the bullish message, the VIX index returned to the mid-teens while the VIX futures curve remained firmly in contango (upward sloping). Together, these readings suggest that immediate market stress remains contained, with a typical premium for protection against risks farther ahead.
While economic data and geopolitical developments may influence near-term trading, Nvidia’s earnings and the Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole Symposium later this month appear to be August's main catalysts. Together, they may provide important signals about the durability of AI-led growth and the direction of monetary policy.
TCM Volatility Dashboard Signals 1/2/24 - 8/7/26. Source: TCM. Click for larger image
Exposure Update for week ended 8/7/26
With Dashboard signals remaining bullish, Tactical Beta and Tactical Q remain moderately overweight their respective equity indexes.
Tactical Beta daily exposure, trailing 100 days through 8/7/26. Source: TCM. Click for larger image
Tactical Q daily exposure, trailing 100 days through 8/7/26. Source: TCM. Click for larger image