Introducing the Vol Dash by TCM, a weekly update on markets and positioning through the lens of TCM’s Volatility Dashboard.
Vol Dash for week ended 7/10/26
Dashboard signals moved further into bullish territory as the S&P 500 extended its recent advance last week, gaining approximately 1.2% and finishing just below new record highs. While pockets of rotation persisted beneath the surface, the overall tone remained supportive for risk assets with market leadership continuing to broaden beyond the largest technology names.
The coming week carries unusually concentrated event risk with June inflation, major-bank earnings, Taiwan Semiconductor's (TSMC) AI-demand outlook, and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s congressional testimony standing out as obvious catalysts. While the market trend remains supportive, expectations are high and the margin for disappointment is narrowing. The constructive case requires inflation to remain contained, banks to confirm consumer resilience and TSMC to validate AI demand. The main risks are a hotter CPI report, disappointing guidance, or another oil shock.
TCM Volatility Dashboard Signals 1/2/24 - 7/10/26. Source: TCM. Click for larger image
Exposure Update for week ended 7/10/26
Tactical Beta and Tactical Q are slightly overweight their respective equity indexes while Dashboard signals remain bullish.
Tactical Beta daily exposure, trailing 100 day as of 7/10/26. Source: TCM. Click for larger image
Tactical Q daily exposure, trailing 100 day as of 7/10/26. Source: TCM. Click for larger image